The Treasury just proved it can move yields for about eighteen hours. It doubled the cap on its long-dated buyback operations, from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, and yields on the 10-year dropped. By next morning, after Bessent went on CNBC and teased even bigger operations plus a coming “fiscal consolidation” push, the…

Kevin Warsh has spent seven weeks telling markets he’ll raise rates if inflation requires it. The bond market has spent seven weeks quietly testing whether he means it. But the more useful question isn’t whether Warsh wants to hike. It’s whether the federal government’s own balance sheet allows for it. Net interest on the national…

Inflation? There’s a task force for that.Unreliable data? There’s a task force for that.Balance sheet problem? There’s a task force for that.The pursuit of truth? There’s a task force for that. Kevin Warsh held his first meeting as Fed chair on Wednesday. The rate decision no surprise. The FOMC voted unanimously to hold the federal…

Higher for longer has a new meaning. This phrase has served as a description of Fed policy. In the last month, the bond market reclaimed it as a verdict on the entire rate environment, one that has direct consequences for mortgage rates, servicing valuations, and the lenders caught between the two. No Hope in the…

The bond market spent last week trading two completely different versions of the economy, sometimes within the same session. On Monday, the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked and oil prices reflected it. Futures markets responded by pricing out every rate cut on the calendar for 2026 and beginning to assign a small but nonzero probability…