Private credit is not something that is typically covered on this blog. The name says it all, it is private, opaque by design, and deliberately insulated from the kind of public market scrutiny that makes analysis possible. When large swaths of the data are inaccessible and valuations are self-reported, drawing firm conclusions is difficult. I…

A new Federal Reserve chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, is expected to take office in May, marking the end of Jerome Powell’s term. While Powell’s chairmanship formally concludes then, he is not required to leave the Fed altogether. Powell could remain on the Board of Governors until January 2028, and if he chooses to do so,…

Just as mortgage spreads began to normalize, news of a $200B MBS purchase by the GSEs shook the market within minutes. The move disrupted mortgage bond pricing across all products because when you give the market something to work with, it delivers every time. While the bond rally was short-lived, both government and conventional products…

The theme that shaped 2025 for the housing market is all market players adjusting to the “new” mortgage rate environment. The last two years weren’t very different from one another in terms of economic drivers and monetary policy. What differentiated 2025 from 2024 was risk migration from mortgages to other fixed income assets. This shift…

The part of monetary policy that often goes unnoticed until problems emerge is the Fed’s management of liquidity. This is a constant focus for the Fed, and over the years, it has refined its approach to avoid large market disruptions while tightening financial conditions. Managing liquidity is central to the Fed’s ability to tighten or…