The first rate cut of 2025 didn’t turn out to be as exciting, despite the Fed meeting market expectations and revising the dot plot to 3 cuts for the year, up from 2. The September meeting marked the third of the last four rate cuts where mortgage rates rose sharply following the decision. While the…

The much anticipated September Fed meeting will likely deliver a cut, probably a quarter point, even with pressure for more. While the drama around individual officials keeps attention on monetary policy, fiscal dominance has arrived quietly. It makes sense to lower benchmark rates when the government expects heavier bond issuance and more spending. Letting the…

With just under a month until the September Fed meeting, the path forward is as murky as it’s been all year. Data is mixed, messaging is divided, and the pressure to cut rates is continues to get louder. But clarity is still in short supply, and the Fed appears in no rush to act without…

The Fed’s mandate requires the central bank to focus on the long term, even if the actions it takes cause short-term pain. Right now, Powell is operating under that same mantra. Just how “painful” this now three-year stretch has been is subjective. The housing market would argue it’s been very painful. The bond market has…

The last two months have brought the most stability the markets have seen in years. The MOVE index, which measures implied volatility in U.S. Treasuries, has stayed under 100 for its longest streak in over three years. While this is a welcome sign for mortgage bonds, stability doesn’t equate to an absence of volatility, especially…