The 10YR has been drifting downward for nearly six weeks as markets begin to price in almost three rate cuts, with four Fed meetings remaining this year. With bond yields falling and equities rising, markets are showing a fair amount of optimism, given where inflation and the labor market currently stand. We’ve seen this pattern…

According to market pricing at the end of 2024, the Fed would have cut rates four times this year, with half of the cuts already in place by now. Since the last cut in December, the Fed Funds Rate hasn’t moved. After the first 50 bps cut in September 2024, mortgage rates have moved up…

We’re halfway through the year, and the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate (as reported by Bankrate) has seen a range of more than 70 basis points. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has moved within an 80 basis point range. The last time the average 30-year mortgage rate dipped below 6% was in August 2022. The…

The Big Beautiful Bill takes, and Bessent gives. That theme isn’t going anywhere, and lately, the tempo has picked up as the bond market has started to react. Since early May, the 10-year yield has climbed back toward the year’s highs. We’re now just 20 to 30 basis points away from a 10YR level that…

In recent months, financial markets have seen a notable shift: the term premium—the extra yield investors demand to hold long-term bonds—has been rising. This change reflects greater uncertainty about inflation, fiscal policy, and economic growth over the long haul. These factors combined are not good news for mortgage rates, especially while anxiety over future Treasury…